Bitcoin Weeklyビットコイン週報
No change.
Nothing to do this week.
One call at the top. The evidence under it. The judgement at the end.
Value is 34.1 and nothing is flashing danger — the band where deployment has been rewarded.
Scheduled contributions continue either way — that never changes. This is about a lump you already have.
Where value has been — 12 months価値の軌跡
Each day ranked against its own history; the current value percentile is 34.1. It peaked at 64.7 on 2025-10-13 and bottomed at 14.9 on 2026-06-29. Weekly points.
The model context模型
Descriptions of price, not targets.
The power law
expanding log-log fit · refit through 2026-10-13
−41.1%
Bitcoin at $83,353 is 41.1% below the long-run power-law line at $141,560. The line is an imaginary description of where price has been, not a target or a forecast. Its coefficients move as observations arrive.
1489 of 4304 modern-era days were cheaper relative to the line — the 34.6 percentile. This is cheap, but it is not historically extreme.
| cycle trough | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2015-01-14 | −76.3% |
| 2018-12-15 | −51.0% |
| 2020-03-12 | −58.3% |
| 2022-11-21 | −63.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | −56.0% |
| cycle peak | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2013-12-04 | +766.6% |
| 2017-12-16 | +566.1% |
| 2019-06-26 | +57.0% |
| 2021-11-08 | +134.2% |
| 2025-10-06 | +13.6% |
Every trough shown went deeper than today, while peak overshoots have contracted sharply. The history is the hedge against reading “41.1% below” as a promise.
The valuation ladder
spot $83,353 · rank 3 · 5 of 8 rungs above spot
| rung | value | spot vs |
|---|---|---|
| cointime priceharvested · derive to 1.41% | $53,473 | +55.9% |
| realised priceharvested · derive to 0.17% | $53,830 | +54.8% |
| true market meanharvested · derive to 0.25% | $77,467 | +7.6% |
| power lawours | $141,560 | −41.1% |
| vaulted priceharvested · derive to 0.98% | $147,117 | −43.3% |
| MVRV +1.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $154,556 | −46.1% |
| MVRV +1.5sdharvested · cannot verify | $181,066 | −54.0% |
| MVRV +2.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $207,576 | −59.8% |
Five of eight rungs are independently derivable: four harvested base-price models can be rebuilt to the stated tolerances, and the power law is ours. The three MVRV bands are copied from an external chart and cannot be independently verified. A ladder is context; no rung, including the upper bands, is a price objective.
Anything unusual?異常
- short-term holders are realising losses on average (SOPR 0.998)
Do anything?行動
- No boundary crossed this week.
An item appears here only when a level crosses a boundary, the engine changes state, the sell guard lights, or an input goes stale. Steady readings produce no items on purpose — a report that always finds something will eventually invent something.
The Panel計器盤
Three indicators, three different jobs.
MVRV
the picture, and the buy side
1.519
39.2 percentile ▼ 3.6
Cost basis of the average coin. Below 1.0 the average holder is underwater. This is the buy-side number; do not average it with anything.
Puell multiple
the danger side
1.109
51.7 percentile ▼ 4.0
Miner revenue against its own trend. The panel's danger marker is meaningful only when it reaches the upper band and the other instruments agree.
price ÷ 200-week avg
the confluence check
1.253
24.5 percentile ▼ was 26.1
Price against its 200-week average. Third leg of the guard; only meaningful when it agrees with the other two.
Sell guard — CLEAR · 0 / 3
Nothing in its top fifth. The danger confluence is not lit. It lights only when all three panel members sit in their top fifth at once. That is a reason to stop adding and check sizing — never a sell trigger.
If you were deploying capital today資本
The distribution you are stepping into
days since 2018 with MVRV in the 29–49 percentile band · n=614
Historical distribution conditional on today's reading. Not a forecast. It says what this zone has looked like, not what happens next.
The rule that survived the tests. Keep buying on schedule regardless of this number, including when the panel is not cheap.
Use the panel to size a lump you already have — faster below 40, slower above 60 — and never to decide whether a scheduled contribution goes in.
Who is under stress売り手
What the week rules out.
| cohort | level | percentile |
|---|---|---|
| long-term holders | 1.086 | 32.3 |
| short-term holders | 0.998 | 30.7 |
| supply in profit | 0.653 | 40.9 |
SOPR below 1.0 means that cohort is realising losses on average. This is the one thing price cannot tell you: who is doing the selling. Use it to kill stories — if someone claims long-term holders are capitulating, this either shows it or it does not.
Week, month, quarter, year四つの地平
| span | BTC | value then | Δ value | Δ MVRV | Δ Puell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| weeksince 2026-10-06 | −2.6% | 37.5 | −3.4 | −3.6 | −4.0 |
| monthsince 2026-09-13 | +8.5% | 30.9 | +3.2 | +3.3 | +7.0 |
| quartersince 2026-07-14 | +28.3% | 18.6 | +15.5 | +17.9 | +24.2 |
| YTDsince 2026-01-01 | −6.1% | 41.3 | −7.2 | −0.7 | +15.0 |
One week is noise. The same direction across four horizons is the difference between drifting and moving. Δ columns are percentile points.
Where we are in the cycle周期
This drawdown so far
Day 372 since the all-time high.
Completed cycles, for scale
peak to trough · the analogue set, all four of it
| cycle | duration | depth |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-06 → 2011-11 | 162d | −93% |
| 2013-12 → 2015-01 | 406d | −85% |
| 2017-12 → 2018-12 | 364d | −84% |
| 2021-11 → 2022-11 | 378d | −77% |
The Analyst Note所見
No change. Nothing to do this week.
The empty action list now sits beside a less comfortable reading: short-term holders are realising losses. Bitcoin is $83,353.19, down 2.6% on the week, and value has eased from 37.5 to 34.1. The BUY sizing posture survives that weakness because the sell guard remains CLEAR at 0 / 3. RECOVERY is confirmed by its rule, not merely held. My judgement is that the conditions for deployment remain usable, while the loss reading deserves attention without being promoted into a new instruction.
What the loss reading can establish
Short-term-holder SOPR is 0.998; long-term-holder SOPR is 1.086. The former is below cost, the latter above it. Their historical ranks, 30.7 and 32.3, are close, but ranks do not measure how much either cohort sold. These readings establish that losses are being realised by recent holders. They do not establish a dominant seller, a forced sale, or exhaustion of supply.
The broader capitulation panel has 0 of 8 members lit. That makes a market-wide capitulation claim unsupported by this panel, even with the cohort anomaly present. It also leaves the bottom unresolved. A shallow drawdown and a quiet capitulation panel overlap mechanically; counting them as separate votes would give the same absence of stress too much weight.
The fear reading adds little to the price decline
The sentiment index fell from 67 to 53. Its price-based prediction is 52, with a reported residual of +1.1 points (+0.1 standard deviations). The level sounds like a cooling mood; the residual offers little evidence of sentiment beyond what price already explains. I would not count the declining index as another independent reason for either urgency or reassurance. The week is weaker while bitcoin remains up 8.5% on the month and 28.3% on the quarter. Those horizons keep an ordinary recovery setback plausible; they cannot tell us that this one will stop here.
The question is whether losses resolve or spread
Branch A — the loss pocket closes. Short-term-holder SOPR returns above cost while long-term holders continue to realise profits and the guard stays CLEAR. That would support reading this week as contained stress within recovery. Long-term-holder SOPR moving below cost alongside a broadening capitulation panel would invalidate that reading. A fresh BEAR_DECLINE decision would also contradict the recovery premise.
Branch B — losses propagate. Recent holders continue realising losses, long-term holders join them, and more capitulation members light. That would undermine the idea that a clear sell guard means an easy deployment: the guard measures danger at the expensive end, not protection against downside. Both cohorts returning above cost alongside a rule-fired BULL_EXPANSION would invalidate this deterioration thesis. A break below the provisional low of $58,525.05 would separately reset the cycle clock.
Neither branch is established today. The cohort anomaly changes what I would look for in the next reading; it does not change the engine's action list. The useful distinction this week is between a sizing condition that remains favourable and evidence that losses have finished. We have the former, and do not yet have the latter.
Standing caveat. The completed-cycle sample contains four observations. Historical distributions are context, not forecasts. Nothing here is a reason to change a scheduled contribution.
Read this before trusting any number above. Every input is checked for staleness before it is rendered, using the regime engine's own dropout cutoff. Correction before publication: the engine's ETF-flow vendor stopped answering on 10-10, and from 10-12 that input sat past the cutoff. The demand pillar scored on what was left, the RECOVERY rule stopped firing, and the first draft of this page called the label “held — no rule fired.” The input was switched to our own Farside capture on 10-13 (it matches the old vendor to within $0.05M on the median day across 127 shared days), and on recompute the rule fires on every day of the week. The numbers above did not depend on it; the label's source did.
The engine's label is RECOVERY, sourced rule — the RECOVERY entry rule fired, confidence 0.56. The label describes the present; it is not a forecast. Treat everything here as context for sizing and for killing stories, not as timing. Generated against the regime engine · value percentile is expanding-window, no look-ahead. The full method, every refuted strategy, and the evidence for this panel are in the engine atlas.