Bitcoin Weeklyビットコイン週報
No change.
Nothing to do this week.
One call at the top. The evidence under it. The judgement at the end.
Value is 35.9 and nothing is flashing danger — the band where deployment has been rewarded.
Scheduled contributions continue either way — that never changes. This is about a lump you already have.
Where value has been — 12 months価値の軌跡
Each day ranked against its own history; the current value percentile is 35.9. It peaked at 72.3 on 2025-10-06 and bottomed at 14.9 on 2026-06-29. Weekly points.
The model context模型
Descriptions of price, not targets.
The power law
expanding log-log fit · refit through 2026-09-29
−40.8%
Bitcoin at $83,096 is 40.8% below the long-run power-law line at $140,296. The line is an imaginary description of where price has been, not a target or a forecast. Its coefficients move as observations arrive.
1513 of 4290 modern-era days were cheaper relative to the line — the 35.3 percentile. This is cheap, but it is not historically extreme.
| cycle trough | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2015-01-14 | −76.3% |
| 2018-12-15 | −51.0% |
| 2020-03-12 | −58.3% |
| 2022-11-21 | −63.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | −56.0% |
| cycle peak | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2013-12-04 | +766.6% |
| 2017-12-16 | +566.1% |
| 2019-06-26 | +57.0% |
| 2021-11-08 | +134.2% |
| 2025-10-06 | +13.6% |
Every trough shown went deeper than today, while peak overshoots have contracted sharply. The history is the hedge against reading “40.8% below” as a promise.
The valuation ladder
spot $83,096 · rank 3 · 5 of 8 rungs above spot
| rung | value | spot vs |
|---|---|---|
| cointime priceharvested · derive to 1.41% | $53,045 | +56.7% |
| realised priceharvested · derive to 0.17% | $53,542 | +55.2% |
| true market meanharvested · derive to 0.25% | $77,103 | +7.8% |
| power lawours | $140,296 | −40.8% |
| vaulted priceharvested · derive to 0.98% | $146,173 | −43.2% |
| MVRV +1.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $153,827 | −46.0% |
| MVRV +1.5sdharvested · cannot verify | $180,224 | −53.9% |
| MVRV +2.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $206,621 | −59.8% |
Five of eight rungs are independently derivable: four harvested base-price models can be rebuilt to the stated tolerances, and the power law is ours. The three MVRV bands are copied from an external chart and cannot be independently verified. A ladder is context; no rung, including the upper bands, is a price objective.
Anything unusual?異常
- Puell multiple moved +11 percentile points in a week
Do anything?行動
- No boundary crossed this week.
An item appears here only when a level crosses a boundary, the engine changes state, the sell guard lights, or an input goes stale. Steady readings produce no items on purpose — a report that always finds something will eventually invent something.
The Panel計器盤
Three indicators, three different jobs.
MVRV
the picture, and the buy side
1.559
41.0 percentile ▼ 3.0
Cost basis of the average coin. Below 1.0 the average holder is underwater. This is the buy-side number; do not average it with anything.
Puell multiple
the danger side
1.209
58.8 percentile ▲ 11.3
Miner revenue against its own trend. The panel's danger marker is meaningful only when it reaches the upper band and the other instruments agree.
price ÷ 200-week avg
the confluence check
1.262
24.9 percentile ▼ 2.0
Price against its 200-week average. Third leg of the guard; only meaningful when it agrees with the other two.
Sell guard — CLEAR · 0 / 3
Nothing in its top fifth. The danger confluence is not lit. It lights only when all three panel members sit in their top fifth at once. That is a reason to stop adding and check sizing — never a sell trigger.
If you were deploying capital today資本
The distribution you are stepping into
days since 2018 with MVRV in the 31–51 percentile band · n=628
Historical distribution conditional on today's reading. Not a forecast. It says what this zone has looked like, not what happens next.
The rule that survived the tests. Keep buying on schedule regardless of this number, including when the panel is not cheap.
Use the panel to size a lump you already have — faster below 40, slower above 60 — and never to decide whether a scheduled contribution goes in.
Who is under stress売り手
What the week rules out.
| cohort | level | percentile |
|---|---|---|
| long-term holders | 1.165 | 36.1 |
| short-term holders | 1.001 | 54.8 |
| supply in profit | 0.673 | 44.4 |
SOPR below 1.0 means that cohort is realising losses on average. This is the one thing price cannot tell you: who is doing the selling. Use it to kill stories — if someone claims long-term holders are capitulating, this either shows it or it does not.
Week, month, quarter, year四つの地平
| span | BTC | value then | Δ value | Δ MVRV | Δ Puell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| weeksince 2026-09-22 | −3.6% | 38.5 | −2.6 | −3.0 | +11.3 |
| monthsince 2026-08-30 | +7.0% | 32.3 | +3.6 | +3.9 | +9.3 |
| quartersince 2026-06-30 | +42.0% | 13.8 | +22.0 | +24.2 | +41.4 |
| YTDsince 2026-01-01 | −6.3% | 41.3 | −5.4 | +1.1 | +22.1 |
One week is noise. The same direction across four horizons is the difference between drifting and moving. Δ columns are percentile points.
Where we are in the cycle周期
This drawdown so far
Day 358 since the all-time high.
Completed cycles, for scale
peak to trough · the analogue set, all four of it
| cycle | duration | depth |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-06 → 2011-11 | 162d | −93% |
| 2013-12 → 2015-01 | 406d | −85% |
| 2017-12 → 2018-12 | 364d | −84% |
| 2021-11 → 2022-11 | 378d | −77% |
The Analyst Note所見
No change. Nothing to do this week.
Bitcoin is at $83,096, down 3.6% on the week. Value fell 2.6 points, from 38.5 to 35.9. The regime engine remained in RECOVERY with a rule firing, while the sell guard stayed CLEAR at 0 / 3. The BUY sizing posture survives, but no boundary crossed. A cheaper reading is not automatically a fresh action.
The sharp move came from the instrument price did not explain
MVRV fell 3.0 percentile points to 41.0, and price against its 200-week average fell 2.0 points to 24.9. Puell moved the other way: +11.3 points to 58.8, the week's only anomaly. It remains in the middle band, not the danger band. Puell measures miner revenue against its own trend; this readout does not isolate which side of that ratio caused the jump. Calling it miner strength would claim more than the evidence supplies.
The marginal seller still looks recent, not structural
Short-term-holder SOPR is 1.001 at the 54.8 percentile. Long-term-holder SOPR is 1.165 at the 36.1 percentile, while supply in profit is 0.673 at the 44.4 percentile. The percentile gap is 19 points: recent buyers are taking gains, but the base is not distributing with the same intensity. Both SOPR levels remain above one, and the capitulation panel remains empty at 0 of 8. This is rotation, not evidence that selling has become broad.
Sentiment cooled without becoming sober
Fear and Greed fell from 78 to 70, against a price-implied 53. The residual is still +17.3 points, or +1.53 standard deviations, after moving from +21 to +17 in seven days. Funding sits at the 64.4 percentile, and liquidations peaked at $197M, only the 169th of 1396 days. Optimism is still ahead of momentum; leverage stress is not confirming it.
One large buyer returned, with its constraint attached
The largest corporate holder added 1,665 BTC this week, per its own filing, and reached a record 847,666. At an mNAV of 0.85, however, the market prices those coins 15% below spot. The purchase proves that one buyer added. It does not prove that the bid is broad or that discounted equity can finance the same pace indefinitely.
Cheap is a sizing input, not proof the low is finished
Value is 35.9, and spot is 40.8% below the expanding power-law line. Yet 1513 of 4290 modern-era days were cheaper relative to that line, and the capitulation panel is still 0 of 8. The cycle clock has recorded 0 accumulation days and 0 capitulation days in the 91 days since the June low. Those facts can coexist: the market can be cheap without the low being proven.
Two branches, separated by whether the June low survives
Branch A — this is digestion inside recovery. Recent holders take gains, the June low holds, and the engine stays in RECOVERY while both danger panels remain clear. The engine leaving RECOVERY or the sell guard ceasing to be CLEAR invalidates this branch.
Branch B — the low remains ahead of its evidence. The clock skipped accumulation and capitulation, sentiment remains ahead of momentum, and cheapness arrived without breadth. The June low remaining intact while value moves out of the cheap band and capitulation stays unlit invalidates this branch.
The evidence does not yet choose between them. The call remains BUY because value is 35.9 and danger is clear — not because the Puell anomaly or a resumed corporate bid proves the next leg. No change. Nothing to do this week.
Standing caveat. The completed-cycle sample contains four observations. Historical distributions are context, not forecasts. Nothing here is a reason to change a scheduled contribution.
Read this before trusting any number above. Every input is checked for staleness before it is rendered, using the regime engine's own dropout cutoff. All inputs fresh this week.
The engine's label is RECOVERY, sourced fired — a rule fired and retained the previous state. Its edge is at naming the present, not predicting it. Treat everything here as context for sizing and for killing stories, not as timing. Generated against the regime engine · value percentile is expanding-window, no look-ahead. The full method, every refuted strategy, and the evidence for this panel are in the engine atlas.