Bitcoin Weeklyビットコイン週報
No change.
Nothing to do this week.
One call at the top. The evidence under it. The judgement at the end.
Deploy free capital — value is 33.3 and nothing is flashing danger. This is the band where deployment has been rewarded.
Scheduled contributions continue either way — that never changes. This is about a lump you already have.
Where value has been — 12 months価値の軌跡
Each day ranked against its own history; the current value percentile is 33.3. It peaked at 71.6 on 2025-10-06 and bottomed at 14.7 on 2026-06-29. Weekly points.
The model context模型
Descriptions of price, not targets.
The power law
expanding log-log fit · refit through 2026-08-25
−42.3%
Bitcoin at $79,227 is 42.3% below the long-run power-law line at $137,240. The line is an imaginary description of where price has been, not a target or a forecast. Its coefficients move as observations arrive.
1400 of 4255 modern-era days were cheaper relative to the line — the 32.9th percentile. This is cheap, but it is not historically extreme.
| cycle trough | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2015-01-14 | −76.3% |
| 2018-12-15 | −51.0% |
| 2020-03-12 | −58.3% |
| 2022-11-21 | −63.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | −56.0% |
| cycle peak | vs line |
|---|---|
| 2013-12-04 | +766.6% |
| 2017-12-16 | +566.1% |
| 2019-06-26 | +57.0% |
| 2021-11-08 | +134.2% |
| 2025-10-06 | +13.6% |
Every trough shown went deeper than today, while peak overshoots have contracted sharply. The history is the hedge against reading “42.3% below” as a promise.
The valuation ladder
spot $79,227 · rank 3 · 5 of 8 rungs above spot
| rung | value | spot vs |
|---|---|---|
| cointime priceharvested · derive to 1.41% | $52,640 | +50.5% |
| realised priceharvested · derive to 0.17% | $52,864 | +49.9% |
| true market meanharvested · derive to 0.25% | $76,050 | +4.2% |
| power lawours | $137,240 | −42.3% |
| vaulted priceharvested · derive to 0.98% | $144,579 | −45.2% |
| MVRV +1.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $152,134 | −47.9% |
| MVRV +1.5sdharvested · cannot verify | $178,262 | −55.6% |
| MVRV +2.0sdharvested · cannot verify | $204,390 | −61.2% |
Five of eight rungs are independently derivable: four harvested base-price models can be rebuilt to the stated tolerances, and the power law is ours. The three MVRV bands are copied from an external chart and cannot be independently verified. A ladder is context; no rung, including the upper bands, is a price objective.
Anything unusual?異常
- MVRV moved +17 percentile points in a week
- Puell multiple moved +11 percentile points in a week
- price ÷ 200-week average moved +14 percentile points in a week
- long-term holders are realising losses on average (SOPR 0.956)
Do anything?行動
- No boundary crossed this week.
Correction, 2026-09-05. As published, this section listed value crossed the 20 line (17.9 → 33.3) and engine state changed: BEAR_DECLINE → RECOVERY. Both had already been reported in issue 002, six days earlier. The readout compared against a fixed seven days while these two issues were published six days apart, so their lookback windows overlapped and the same two events were announced twice. Nothing new crossed a boundary in the six days this issue actually covered. The generator now compares against the previous issue rather than a fixed week, so it cannot double-report; the original wording is quoted above rather than removed.
An item appears here only when a level crosses a boundary, the engine changes state, the sell guard lights, or an input goes stale. Steady readings produce no items on purpose — a report that always finds something will eventually invent something.
The Panel計器盤
Three indicators, three different jobs.
MVRV
the picture, and the buy side
1.488
38.2 percentile ▲ 16.7
Cost basis of the average coin. Below 1.0 the average holder is underwater. This is the buy-side number; do not average it with anything.
Puell multiple
the danger side
0.936
39.2 percentile ▲ 10.6
Miner revenue against its own trend. Best danger marker in the set — 96% of purchases in its top fifth were underwater two years later.
price ÷ 200-week avg
the confluence check
1.225
22.9 percentile ▲ 13.7
Price against its 200-week average. Third leg of the guard; only meaningful when it agrees with the other two.
Sell guard — CLEAR
Nothing in its top fifth. The danger confluence is not lit. Lights only when all three panel members sit in their top fifth at once. In the 2018–2024 sample that combination left 100% of purchases underwater two years later. It is a reason to stop adding and check sizing — never a sell trigger, and it rests on roughly three independent episodes.
If you were deploying capital today資本
The distribution you are stepping into
days since 2018 with MVRV in the 28–48 percentile band · n=621
Historical distribution conditional on today's reading. Not a forecast. It says what this zone has looked like, not what happens next.
The rule that survived every test. Keep buying on schedule regardless of this number. Nine timing strategies were tested against this data and five failed, including every version of "wait for a cheap week."
Use the panel to size a lump you already have — faster below 40, slower above 60 — and never to decide whether a scheduled contribution goes in.
Who is under stress売り手
What the week rules out.
| cohort | level | percentile |
|---|---|---|
| long-term holders | 0.956 | 26.4 |
| short-term holders | 1.009 | 83.0 |
| supply in profit | 0.67 | 43.8 |
SOPR below 1.0 means that cohort is realising losses on average. This is the one thing price cannot tell you: who is doing the selling. Use it to kill stories — if someone claims long-term holders are capitulating, this either shows it or it does not.
Week, month, quarter, year四つの地平
| span | BTC | value then | Δ value | Δ MVRV | Δ Puell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| weeksince 2026-08-18 | +22.5% | 17.9 | +15.4 | +16.7 | +10.6 |
| monthsince 2026-07-26 | +21.3% | 18.8 | +14.5 | +16.6 | +14.1 |
| quartersince 2026-05-26 | +4.5% | 30.3 | +3.0 | +6.0 | +13.7 |
| YTDsince 2026-01-01 | −10.7% | 40.9 | −7.6 | −1.6 | +5.1 |
One week is noise. The same direction across four horizons is the difference between drifting and moving. Δ columns are percentile points.
Where we are in the cycle周期
This drawdown so far
Day 323 since the all-time high.
Completed cycles, for scale
peak to trough · the analogue set, all four of it
| cycle | duration | depth |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-06 → 2011-11 | 162d | −93% |
| 2013-12 → 2015-01 | 406d | −85% |
| 2017-12 → 2018-12 | 364d | −84% |
| 2021-11 → 2022-11 | 378d | −77% |
The Analyst Note所見
Value crossed the 20 line: 17.9 → 33.3
Bitcoin is at $79,227, up 22.5% on the week. Value rose 15.4 points from 17.9 to 33.3, crossing out of deep value in a single move. The regime engine fired RECOVERY from BEAR_DECLINE, while the sell guard stayed CLEAR at 0 / 3. That combination supports the BUY call, but the speed of the move is the reason to interrogate it rather than celebrate it.
The rebound was violent; the conviction underneath was not
On 2026-08-21, liquidations reached $1,435M — $1,014M long and $421M short — the largest day in the 1359-day series that begins 2022-12-03. Funding is only at the 38.7th percentile. A record leverage flush paired with unstretched funding reads as positions being closed, not as evidence that fresh demand supplied the whole rebound.
Sentiment makes the same caution from another angle. Fear and Greed is 76 against a momentum-implied 65; the residual is +11.5 points, or +1.02 standard deviations. Short-term-holder SOPR is 1.009 at the 83.0th percentile, while long-term holders are realising losses at 0.956, the 26.4th percentile. Recent buyers can take gains into a rally even while the older base does not confirm broad strength. That is a divided tape, not a settled one.
Cheap is not capitulated
The three valuation instruments all remain cheap: MVRV is 1.488 at 38.2, Puell is 0.936 at 39.2, and price is 1.225 times its 200-week average at 22.9. Yet the separate capitulation panel has 0 of 8 members lit, after every prior cycle bottom reached a full panel. The clock likewise records 0 accumulation days and 0 capitulation days since the low. The engine can say value is deployable; it cannot honestly say the bottoming process is complete.
The long-run models reinforce the distinction. Bitcoin is 42.3% below the power-law line, but 32.9% of modern-era days were cheaper and every trough in the displayed set went deeper. Five of eight valuation-ladder rungs sit above spot, but none is a target. Meanwhile the drawdown is 36.5% today and reached 53.1% at its worst; the shallowest completed cycle reached 77%. Cheap relative to history and complete by precedent are different claims. Only the first is supported.
Two branches, with invalidators named now
Branch A — the flush cleared the recovery path. The record liquidation was absorbed, funding is unstretched, the engine is in RECOVERY, value remains cheap, and the guard is clear. A return to BEAR_DECLINE or a break below the $58,525 low invalidates this branch.
Branch B — this was a mechanical relief move. Record forced closing, sentiment running ahead of momentum, and no capitulation breadth are the evidence. This branch is invalidated if RECOVERY persists while subsequent gains arrive without another outlier liquidation and the sentiment residual narrows.
I favour Branch A, narrowly. The reason is not the 22.5% headline move; it is that the largest leverage purge in the available record did not light valuation danger, while all three panel members stayed below the 40th percentile. The reservation is equally concrete: no capitulation and no accumulation clock means precedent has not certified a durable low. BUY is therefore a sizing decision for free capital, not a bottom call, and not a reason to alter scheduled contributions.
Standing caveat. Four completed cycles is four observations. Historical distributions are context, not forecasts, and the on-chain signal has been measurably decaying cycle over cycle. Nothing here is a reason to change a scheduled contribution.
Read this before trusting any number above. Every input is checked for staleness before it is rendered, and anything older than 3 days prints as UNKNOWN rather than as a confident figure. All inputs fresh this week.
The engine's label is RECOVERY, sourced fired — a rule fired, changing the previous state. Its edge is at naming the present, not at predicting — and that edge is decaying too. On the days its rules fire, the engine has beaten a 200-day moving average by roughly +20pp averaged across eleven years; cycle by cycle that is +41, +59, +18, +5 and, in the current cycle, −14pp. On its own firing days the engine is now behind the moving average. That last block is 163 days and a partial cycle, in a trending stretch that flatters a trend rule, so read it as a decay trajectory rather than a verdict — but do not read the eleven-year average as a live capability. On-chain signal has been decaying cycle over cycle; treat everything here as context for sizing and for killing stories, not as timing. Generated against the regime engine · value percentile is expanding-window, no look-ahead. The full method, every refuted strategy, and the evidence for this panel are in the engine atlas.