Bitcoin Weeklyビットコイン週報
The market stopped moving —
and that is the week's actual news.
One call at the top. The evidence under it. The judgement at the end.
Deploy free capital — value is at 17.0 and nothing is flashing danger. This is the band where deployment has been rewarded.
Scheduled contributions continue either way — that never changes. This is about a lump you already have.
Where value has been — 12 months価値の軌跡
Each day ranked against its own history, so 17 means cheaper than 83% of everything on record. It peaked at 71.6 on 2025-10-06 — the day of the price high — and bottomed at 14.7 on 2026-06-29, the day before the price low. Weekly points.
Anything unusual?異常
- price ÷ 200-week average is in its bottom decile (8.5) — historically rare
- long-term holders are realising losses on average (SOPR 0.845)
Do anything?行動
- Nothing crossed a boundary. No action.
An item appears here only when a level crosses a boundary, the engine changes state, the sell guard lights, or an input goes stale. Steady readings produce no items on purpose — a report that always finds something will eventually invent something.
The Panel計器盤
Three indicators, three different jobs.
MVRV
the picture, and the buy side
1.211
20.7 percentile — flat
Cost basis of the average coin. Below 1.0 the average holder is underwater. This is the buy-side number; do not average it with anything.
Puell multiple
the danger side
0.742
23.8 percentile ▼ 3.0
Miner revenue against its own trend. Best danger marker in the set — 96% of purchases in its top fifth were underwater two years later.
price ÷ 200-week avg
the confluence check
1.002
8.5 percentile ▼ 0.4
Price against its 200-week average. Third leg of the guard; only meaningful when it agrees with the other two.
Sell guard — CLEAR
Nothing in its top fifth. The danger confluence is not lit. Lights only when all three panel members sit in their top fifth at once. In the 2018–2024 sample that combination left 100% of purchases underwater two years later. It is a reason to stop adding and check sizing — never a sell trigger, and it rests on roughly three independent episodes.
If you were deploying capital today資本
The distribution you are stepping into
days since 2018 with MVRV in the 11–31 percentile band · n=551
Historical distribution conditional on today's reading. Not a forecast. It says what this zone has looked like, not what happens next.
The rule that survived every test. Keep buying on schedule regardless of this number. Nine timing strategies were tested against this data and five failed, including every version of "wait for a cheap week."
Use the panel to size a lump you already have — faster below 40, slower above 60 — and never to decide whether a scheduled contribution goes in.
Who is under stress売り手
What the week rules out.
| cohort | level | percentile |
|---|---|---|
| long-term holders | 0.845 | 21.2 |
| short-term holders | 1.0 | 39.0 |
| supply in profit | 0.536 | 22.5 |
SOPR below 1.0 means that cohort is realising losses on average. This is the one thing price cannot tell you: who is doing the selling. Use it to kill stories — if someone claims long-term holders are capitulating, this either shows it or it does not.
Week, month, quarter, year四つの地平
| span | BTC | value then | Δ value | Δ MVRV | Δ Puell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| weeksince 2026-08-04 | −0.3% | 17.3 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −3.0 |
| monthsince 2026-07-12 | 0.2% | 17.1 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +2.3 |
| quartersince 2026-05-12 | −20.6% | 34.1 | −17.1 | −16.1 | −5.4 |
| YTDsince 2026-01-01 | −28.0% | 40.9 | −23.9 | −19.1 | −13.7 |
One week is noise. The same direction across four horizons is the difference between drifting and moving. Δ columns are percentile points.
Where we are in the cycle周期
This drawdown so far
Day 309 since the all-time high.
Completed cycles, for scale
peak to trough · the analogue set, all four of it
| cycle | duration | depth |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-06 → 2011-11 | 162d | −93% |
| 2013-12 → 2015-01 | 406d | −85% |
| 2017-12 → 2018-12 | 364d | −84% |
| 2021-11 → 2022-11 | 378d | −77% |
The Analyst Note所見
The market stopped moving, and that is the week's actual news
Bitcoin is at $63,887, down 0.3% on the week and up 0.2% on the month. That flatness sits at the end of a quarter that took price down 20.6% and a year that has taken it down 28.0%. A market that fell hard and has now gone quiet for a month is doing one of two things: building a base, or resting mid-decline. Nothing in this week's data distinguishes those, and any report claiming otherwise is guessing.
What did move is valuation, and it moved further than price. The value percentile has gone 40.9 → 17.0 year-to-date and 34.1 → 17.0 this quarter. Price fell 28% while the valuation measure fell 24 percentile points, because the cost basis underneath kept rising as coins changed hands lower. That is what a real de-rating looks like rather than a scare.
Two things stand out, and they point the same way
Price sits at its 200-week average — a ratio of 1.002, its 8.5th percentile, the bottom decile of fifteen years. This line has historically been where bear markets end rather than where they pause. And long-term holders are underwater and selling anyway: LTH-SOPR at 0.845. That combination — the patient cohort realising losses while price sits on its long-term mean — is the signature of a late bear, not an early one. Our own earlier work found LTH-SOPR separated genuine cycle bottoms from ordinary dips in four of four cases.
The counterweight, stated fairly: the engine still reads BEAR_DECLINE, and it is holding that label rather than firing a rule for it. It is not seeing a turn. It is not seeing much of anything.
The bottom question, and why the honest answer is a range
The high was 2025-10-06 at $124,728. The low so far is 2026-06-30 at $58,525 — day 267, −53.1%. We are now day 309, at −48.8%.
The four completed cycles ran 162 to 406 days from peak to trough, median 371. Laid on this peak, that puts the median analogue at 2026-10-12 and the outer edge at 2026-11-16. That is the arithmetic behind "September into late October," and it is the reason to keep the guard up through autumn.
But the depth analogue says something different, and I think the depth analogue is the one to distrust. Those same four cycles fell 77% to 93%. This one has fallen 53%. Taken literally, that implies a low near $20,000 and we are nowhere near done. Taken in light of what we measured — cycle tops falling from 6.86 to 2.29 MVRV, bottoms rising from 0.43 to 1.10, amplitude collapsing from 16× to 2× — demanding an 80% drawdown means assuming stable the exact parameter the data shows changing. The June low was the first cycle bottom in history to hold above MVRV 1.0.
Branch A — the low is already in (2026-06-30). Consistent with compression, with price holding its 200-week average, and with valuation at 17. Requires believing this cycle is genuinely shallower than every predecessor.
Branch B — a lower low into October or November. Consistent with the duration analogue, with the engine still calling BEAR_DECLINE, and with the fact that 267 days is short by historical standards. Requires no new assumption at all, which is a point in its favour.
Branch C — neither, a long flat grind. The most boring and, given a market whose amplitude is compressing in both directions, arguably the most likely. Compression should shorten the distance travelled, not necessarily the time.
I do not think this is resolvable from here, and four observations cannot support a date. What the data does support is that we are in the zone where bottoms have historically formed — on valuation, on the 200-week line, and on cohort stress — and that the calendar risk runs through autumn. That is why the call above is BUY on free capital and not on conviction about timing.
What I would watch, and what would change my mind
The single most informative thing between now and October is whether LTH-SOPR pushes further below 1.0. Deepening long-term-holder loss-taking would say capitulation is still ahead; recovery back above 1.0 while price holds would be the strongest evidence available that June was the low. Puell at 23.8 is worth watching for the opposite reason — miner revenue compressing toward its own lows has historically accompanied final flushes.
What would break this read: price breaking decisively below the 200-week average and staying there. That has happened in every previous cycle bottom, and it would move Branch B from "plausible" to "happening." I would rather name that in advance than explain it afterwards.
Standing caveat. Four completed cycles is four observations. Every forward statement above is an analogue, not a forecast, and the on-chain signal underneath it has been measurably decaying cycle over cycle. Nothing here is a reason to change a scheduled contribution.
Read this before trusting any number above. Every input is checked for staleness before it is rendered, and anything older than 14 days prints as UNKNOWN rather than as a confident figure. All inputs fresh this week.
The engine's label is BEAR_DECLINE, sourced held — no rule fired, so it is carrying the previous state forward. Its edge is at naming the present (+19.9pp over price structure on days its rules fire), not at predicting. On-chain signal has been decaying cycle over cycle; treat everything here as context for sizing and for killing stories, not as timing. Generated against the regime engine · value percentile is expanding-window, no look-ahead. The full method, every refuted strategy, and the evidence for this panel are in the engine atlas.